Crown Prince Abdullah and Kissinger’s realpolitik miscalculation

During my tenure as an American defense contractor working in support of the Saudi Air Force, I found myself in a detailed conversation with Dr. Henry Kissinger. The region was transitioning through a highly volatile phase, and King Fahd’s health was failing rapidly leaving his brother, Crown Prince Abdullah, as the de facto ruler of the Kingdom.

Dr. Kissinger leaned in and asked a question that was weighing heavily on the minds of Washington’s foreign policy elite: “I am very interested in hearing what you defense contractors think about Crown Prince Abdullah?”

“Well, for the most part, we are worried,” I replied candidly. “He seems to be firmly in control, and the consensus is that he is fairly anti-American. This could make for a lot of problems down the road for U.S. relations and Saudi defense contracts.”

Kissinger smiled, deploying the classic, detached confidence of a man who viewed global politics as a permanent chess match. “Well, it is certainly true that Abdullah has always been more of a nationalist, but I suspect you’ll see that he won’t be that different than Fahd if he actually becomes king,” he observed. “As Crown Prince he has to play the bad cop, but if he actually takes the throne, he will probably be more moderate. It is the same as with American presidents. They are always very tough when they are campaigning but when in power, they are guided more by national security interests, just like all of the presidents that came before them.”

“I suspect you are right,” I conceded at the time. “It still comes down to oil and security. That much hasn’t changed.”

“Exactly,” Kissinger concluded. “You know the Saudis have been very good friends to the United States. You should always pay more attention to what they do than what they say. If you look at their behavior over the last twenty years, you’d have to say they are better allies than many of the Europeans.”

It was a masterclass in Western........

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)