The Iran war had already entered a phase that Robert Kagan — one of the most influential architects of American neoconservative interventionism — described as the worst strategic defeat in U.S. history. That was the argument of his May 10 Atlantic essay, Checkmate in Iran, which framed the United States as strategically cornered by Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz and by Washington’s inability to impose outcomes through force.

But in the days that followed, a new development forced Kagan back to the keyboard: a phone call between President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that, according to a U.S. source briefed on the conversation, left Netanyahu’s “hair on fire.” The call — and the reaction it triggered — became the catalyst for Kagan’s follow-up article, a piece that shifted his focus from American defeat to what he now warns could become the worst strategic defeat in Israel’s history.

The reporting surrounding the call was stark. Trump reportedly told Netanyahu that mediators were working on a “letter of intent” that both Washington and Tehran would sign to formally end the war and begin a 30-day negotiating process covering Iran’s nuclear program and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Kagan interprets the meaning of that proposal bluntly: the United States is preparing to exit the crisis.

Importantly, Kagan does not argue that Trump would necessarily leave without additional military action. In fact, he suggests the opposite. Trump, he writes, “may launch another limited strike to look tough and satisfy the demands of the war’s supporters,” but such action would amount to little more than political theater — symbolic demonstrations of resolve intended to provide cover for a negotiated exit rather than materially alter the strategic balance.

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© The Times of Israel (Blogs)