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Israel’s Agreement With Lebanon May Be Doomed

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29.06.2026

Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, called it a “major milestone,” heralding what could be a new chapter in Israel’s often rocky bilateral relations with Lebanon.

Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, described it as “a major achievement” that could well open the door to an eventual peace agreement between Israel and its northern neighbor.

The US-brokered framework agreement, signed by Israel and Lebanon in Washington on June 26 after five rounds of direct talks, may indeed prove to be historic. But as Rubio realistically observed, it marks only the “beginning of the beginning” of Israel-Lebanon negotiations, and it faces enormous and, perhaps, insurmountable challenges.

If it is ever implemented, Israel will continue to occupy its self-declared buffer zone in southern Lebanon and withdraw from two small “pilot zones” near the Litani River. Israel is supposed to transfer them to the Lebanese army, which will then be responsible for keeping Hezbollah, a proxy of Iran, out of these areas.

A timeline for Israel’s withdrawal has yet to be determined. And as matters stand today, Israel is skeptical that the pilot zones will be expanded. Israel has little faith in the Lebanese army’s capabilities or its willingness to confront Hezbollah, which is widely regarded as the most powerful military organization in Lebanon.

If the framework agreement works, Israel will relinquish yet more territory and eventually pull out of Lebanon altogether. In exchange, Lebanon’s army would be expected to disarm Hezbollah within........

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)