Iran lost the war militarily, but may prevail politically.

Nearly six months after the United States and Israel launched joint air strikes in Iran, killing a significant proportion of its political and military leadership and massively degrading its armed forces, the Iranian regime has maneuvered U.S. President Donald Trump into a strategic cul-de-sac.

Trump initiated the war with the intention of eliminating Iran’s nuclear program, destroying its arsenal of ballistic missiles and drones, crushing its regional allies in its Axis of Resistance, and creating conditions for a general uprising to topple the theocratic regime.

These objectives have yet to be achieved.

When the war erupted on February 28, Iran was no match for the United States and Israel. Iran turned the tables on them by firing ballistic missiles and drones at critical infrastructure and U.S.  bases in the Arab Gulf states and Jordan.

And in a brilliant strategic move that appeared to catch the United States off guard, Iran started attacking commercial shipping in the vital Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquified natural gas passes. Iran then closed the international waterway to most ships and declared that it would manage traffic through it and charge tolls.

With these steps, Iran achieved tactical leverage by damaging the global economy. With gasoline and food prices rising around the world, and with midterm elections looming in the United States in November, Trump felt pressure to end a war that, he thought, could be finished within six weeks.

To this day, Iran continues to use force to coerce foreign nations to accept its control over the strait. On August 8, the United Arab Emirates reported that an Iranian missile struck one of its oil tankers, causing no casualties.

Iran’s repeated attacks on commercial shipping in the strait underscores its determination to use force to try to establish dominance over the strait amid ongoing negotiations.

Iranian spokesmen have repeatedly said that the strait will not revert to its prewar status as an open waterway, and that Iran will keep attacking ships trying to transit without its permission. Iran’s military command has called its policy an “unbreakable red line.”

“For Iran, the strait has become a strategic lever for deterrence, maintaining the regional balance of power, and reshaping the security rules in the Persian........

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)