The agreement signed between the United States and Iran may succeed in achieving one immediate objective: reducing the risk of a wider regional war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Yet even if the ceasefire holds, a highly uncertain prospect given the history of US-Iran relations, the deal could generate a new set of security challenges extending far beyond the Middle East.

Critics of the agreement have focused on a simple question: what happens when Iran regains economic breathing space?

According to the broad outlines that have emerged, the agreement creates a pathway toward sanctions relief, the return of frozen Iranian assets, and acceptance of some aspects of Iran’s civilian nuclear activities. It also appears to place less emphasis on Iran’s ballistic missile program than many of Tehran’s adversaries had demanded. Critics argue that these concessions could leave Iran in a stronger strategic position than it occupied before the conflict. Some security analysts have warned that an influx of resources could allow Tehran to rebuild military capabilities, expand its missile and drone programs, and re-establish support networks throughout the region.

The concern is not merely theoretical. For decades, Iran has maintained relationships with a network of armed non-state actors stretching from Lebanon to Iraq, Syria, Yemen and beyond. While supporters of the agreement argue that diplomacy offers the best chance of moderating Iranian behaviour, critics note that previous........

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)