Israel’s elections are but several weeks away – and the press is full of who will win, who will lose, and what does that mean for Israel. Not to mention all the other news topic prognostications. Overall, is this something you can trust?

As you’re presently reading The Times of Israel, especially this blog section, you probably have a favorite news analyst (or a few). Part of what commentators do is to try and predict the future course of the issue at hand. Indeed, if you compare newspapers (especially the print versions) from a few decades ago to present ones, the difference is striking. Back then, more than 90% of the front pages was taken up by “hard news”: relatively straightforward reports as to what happened yesterday. Today, by contrast, it’s almost all commentary, analysis, and prognostication: “what does today’s news mean, and where’s it going?”

But how accurate is such futurizing? More to the point, how (un)successful is your favorite analyst-predictor? After all, why bother reading someone whose success rate is lower than a university passing grade of 60? Perhaps there’s someone else who does a much better job than your favorite.

Now there’s a relatively easy way to find out: ask AI! Of course, its judgment on such a question cannot be perfectly accurate for the simple reason that “predictions” in the socio-political sphere are not like ball games with a clear winner and loser. But an........

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