What Israel Could Do to Help Somaliland Break the Diplomatic and Economic Deadlock

 Recognition Is Only the Beginning

Israel’s recognition of Somaliland would not, by itself, settle the long-running dispute over Somaliland’s international status. Recognition can open a diplomatic door, but whether that door leads to wider international acceptance depends on what happens afterward.

The central problem is an asymmetry between de facto control and de jure recognition in International Law. Somaliland has developed many of the attributes normally associated with a functioning state: its own political institutions, security forces, judiciary, currency and administration. Yet Somalia retains the internationally recognized sovereignty of the territory of the former Somali Republic and, consequently, occupies the stronger position within the established international legal and institutional system.

That asymmetry gives Mogadishu an unusual form of leverage and power over Somaliland. Somalia does not necessarily have to defeat Somaliland militarily to obstruct its international integration. Instead, it can use the privileges attached to recognized sovereignty—over aviation, finance, maritime regulation and multilateral diplomacy—to make international engagement with Somaliland more complicated, difficult and costly. By using this regulatory authority (“administrative lawfare”) and international institutional status, Somalia is able  to constrain Somaliland without relying primarily on military force.

This produces two interconnected contests.

The first is the contest over Israel’s recognition itself: can Somalia delay, weaken, isolate, challenge or ultimately undermine the significance of the first recognition?

The second is the contest over precedent: can Somalia prevent Israel’s recognition from becoming the beginning of a broader domino effect sequence of recognitions?

Somalia’s Strategy: Frustrate the First Recognition and Prevent the Second by Using the Following “Sovereign Recognition” Powers:

Somalia is actively turning International Recognition into an Administrative Problem. its most powerful advantage is not necessarily what it can control physically, but what it can influence through international systems.

International airlines, banks, shipping companies, insurers and development institutions operate according to regulatory frameworks. When two authorities issue competing instructions, private companies generally favor the authority whose legal status is internationally recognized.

This creates what is called “corporate compliance arbitrage.” In other words, a company does not necessarily have to accept Somalia’s political argument about Somaliland. It only has to decide which authority presents the lower legal and commercial risk.

The result is important: Somalia can reinforce its sovereignty claim through the everyday decisions of private companies.

Recognition therefore becomes more than a diplomatic question. It becomes a question of whether airlines can fly freely, banks can clear international payments, ships can operate efficiently, insurers will cover commercial activity and investors can obtain predictable financing.

Airspace Control as a Sovereignty Lever

Aviation is one of the clearest examples of how international legal sovereignty can become practical leverage. The Somali Civil Aviation Authority regained internationally recognized control of the Mogadishu Flight Information Region (FIR) at higher flight levels in 2023. This gave Mogadishu regulatory authority over airspace covering the former Somali Republic, including Somaliland.

The significance extends beyond air-traffic management.

If international carriers must obtain federal authorization before operating flights, Mogadishu can make diplomatic visits and international travel to Hargeisa more cumbersome and costly. For example, following the famous Ethiopia-Somaliland Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), Ethiopian Airline delegations were denied flight clearances to Somaliland. Recently, the mandatory E-Visa required to buy ($64) for Somalilanders to travel to Hargeisa, is another example that created problems for for both the government and travellers.

Somaliland’s attempt to instead operate its own aviation procedures has also produced competing instructions for aircraft. The resulting safety concerns have given Somalia an additional argument it has won before international aviation institutions.

The broader Somalia strategy is therefore straightforward: make international aviation to Somaliland dependent on Somalia’s recognized regulatory position.

 Banking and Financial Infrastructure

The same principle operates in finance. Somalia’s internationally recognized central bank occupies the sovereign position within the country’s formal monetary system. Somaliland-based financial institutions that operate across borders therefore face an environment in which........

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)