How a decades-long accession campaign became a pragmatic—but uneasy—partnership.

Turkey’s European journey is one of the continent’s longest unresolved political stories. The relationship began with the 1963 Ankara Agreement, followed by a membership application in 1987, candidate status in 1999, and accession talks in 2005. But by 2018, negotiations had effectively stopped. Turkey remains a candidate on paper; in practice, membership is remote.

No single dispute closed the door. Instead, disagreements over democracy, the rule of law, Cyprus, economics, institutional power, and European identity reinforced one another.

Democracy became the central obstacle.

The EU’s Copenhagen criteria demand stable democratic institutions, human rights, minority protections, and the rule of law. Turkey advanced reforms in the early 2000s, but momentum later reversed. The 2017 constitutional referendum replaced the parliamentary system with a powerful executive presidency, weakening checks and balances and narrowing parliamentary oversight.

After the failed 2016 coup, mass dismissals and detentions spread through the judiciary, universities, media, and civil service. EU institutions also raised concerns about pressure on opposition parties, mayors,........

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