A New Chapter for Iran

With Ayatollah Ali Khamenei no longer alive, still part of the public discourse on the Middle East is already slipping into a familiar refuge: the region is “complex” and “complicated.” That framing typically gestures at history, religion and identity — and then stops short of a diagnosis of what drives instability.

The predictable result is a debate that remains descriptive rather than diagnostic. “Complexity” becomes a substitute for problem definition. And when we avoid defining the problem, we cannot test assumptions, compare explanations or build solutions that can be executed.

The Middle East is complex, yes — as every region is. But complexity is not an excuse for analytical paralysis. If the region cannot be reliably predicted or controlled because multiple factors interact at once, the minimum requirement is to identify those factors, clarify which ones matter most and develop credible, actionable solutions. The most persistent regional problem is chronic instability — the engine of conflict and a primary obstacle to prosperity and quality of life for millions.

For decades, instability has been explained through multiple lenses: religious/sectarian division, competition over oil and gas, and rivalries among major powers with entrenched interests among others. But one major factor has been consistently underweighted in post-1979 analysis and is difficult to ignore: the establishment of the Islamic Republic in Iran.

Using 1979 as a baseline, the region saw a sustained rise in conflict intensity, political violence and proxy warfare — dynamics that repeatedly drew in multiple countries. In simple terms, the post-1979 order produced a higher conflict burden than the pre-1979 baseline, including more distinct armed conflicts and more episodes reaching war-level........

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