While the entire Western media landscape was abuzz after President Donald Trump announced his bizarre plan to rebuild Gaza, something very disconcerting was taking place north of Israel’s border. It went largely unnoticed, but Ahmed al-Sharaa met with Recep Tayyip Erdogan to discuss the possibility of forging a defense pact between Syria and Türkiye. While Gaza is important, as there are still hostages languishing in tunnels, developments in Syria merit our attention as well. I would argue that replacing Hezbollah and Iran with Türkiye is not an improvement. In the long term, it might even be worse.

Al-Sharaa’s drive to consolidate and centralize power in Syria

As I wrote in a post last year, the lightning speed with which the rebels managed to topple Assad’s brutal regime was both astounding and impressive. Afterwards, the IDF launched a massive operation, eliminating Assad’s military arsenal, a decision based on the fear that it could end up in the wrong hands. And, it moved into the buffer zone. All of Israel’s actions led to widespread criticism, but from a security perspective, they definitely made sense. Cautious optimism is needed, but too much is still unclear about Syria’s future – democracy or religious dictatorship, unity or a renewed descent into chaos. And, enigmatic as ever, it is still difficult to gauge al-Sharaa’s plans for the future. All of Israel’s actions have provoked fairly mild reactions from Syria’s new leader. He has called on Israel to retreat from the buffer zone but stressed that he would honor the 1974 agreement. And when Assad’s stockpiles were destroyed he remained mostly silent. If I am optimistic – which I very much would like to be – I would argue that al-Sharaa is not seeking a conflict with Israel and, in the long-term, might be interested in having talks with his southern neighbor about the future. His main priority seems to be maintaining Syrian territorial integrity and reconstructing the country. To this end, al-Sharaa is determined to keep northeastern Syria under control, abolishing all of the different factions and folding them into a centralized Syrian army, and providing the Syrian population with hope for the future through rebuilding the devastated country. As late as 2020, Christopher Phillips wrote in his book The Battle for Syria: International Rivalry in the New Middle East that eastern Syria looked like a shell of itself, the devastation caused by war leaving deep, visible scars. Moreover, proving that Syria’s future will be brighter under the transition government could lead to a return of many of the Syrian refugees who fled the country over the course of the last thirteen years. Therefore, confronting Israel is simply not at the top of his list. However, al-Sharaa was known as the leader of jihadist HTS, until last year. Therefore, Israel should tread with caution.........

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