Hormuz: who really wins when a strait reopens?

When discussing the possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, attention naturally turns to oil markets. Crude oil prices, maritime flows and insurance are the first indicators observed. Yet the real question may be elsewhere.

The reopening of Hormuz will not only be an economic event; it could become a major political event.

Since the beginning of the crisis, the strait has been presented as a maritime security issue. The United States defends freedom of navigation. Iran, on the other hand, argues that Gulf security can no longer be organized without its consent. Behind this opposition lies a much deeper question: who will now have the legitimacy to organize one of the planet’s main energy passages?

At first glance, an agreement might seem beneficial for everyone. The ships would start to move normally again. Insurance costs would fall. Hydrocarbon exports would regain their momentum. Markets would see a return to stability.

But geopolitics is never limited to appearances.

In an international negotiation, the rules that frame an agreement often matter more than the agreement itself.

If........

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