A Change Leadership and Crisis Management Perspective by Dr. Alan Bostakian

The Hormuz crisis will not end until the real problem is solved.

The Strait of Hormuz has quietly become one of the clearest indicators of where things actually stand with the regime in Iran. Every time a ceasefire is signed, a memorandum is reached, or a new round of talks is announced, the question that matters is not what was said in the room. It’s what happens the next time a ship enters the strait. The answer has been the same every time: the regime shows its nature again.

This is not a criticism of the United States. The US has paid an enormous price (militarily, economically, and in lives) to confront a crazy regime that has spent decades destabilizing the region, creating proxies, and threatening the Iranian people along with its neighbors and the whole world. The frustration isn’t with the effort. It’s with the pattern of stopping just short of finishing it, and mistaking a pause in the current crisis for a resolution.

The pattern has repeated with consistency since the ceasefire framework was signed in June. The regime strikes at commercial shipping or tests the boundaries of the agreement, the US responds, and within days both sides are back at the table. Even after a major exchange of fire in early July, the US said it had agreed to continue negotiations at the regime’s request, hours after declaring the ceasefire itself was finished. That has become routine.

Around the same period, it became clear the regime was far more interested in demonstrating its control over Hormuz than in genuinely engaging with Washington. With the prospect of sanctions relief on the table, the regime had little incentive to change course. That is the core problem with this........

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)