Survival of the fittest: Could this NRL title race be the easiest yet?

August 23, 2026 — 5:00am

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The NRL has entered a Darwinian phase – the survival of the fittest in a race to the premiership following a season where injuries have cut a brutal swath.

Players unavailable through injury have been the major factor in a reordering at the top of the competition.

Last year’s top four will miss the eight-team finals for the first time in 34 years, assuming the Bulldogs stay in ninth position. (The 1991 semi finalists Penrith, Manly, Norths and Canberra all missed the 1992 five-team semis.)

An indication of the volatility of the season comes from rugby league statistician and historian David Middleton, who points out that no team to have suffered defeat like the Cowboys’ loss to the Roosters (70 points) and the Dolphins’ to the Sharks (66 points) has qualified for the finals.

Injuries have also been a cause of such long-standing records being established, eclipsed or threatened.

Securing a top-four berth has never been so crucial, given the week’s rest that comes from winning the first semi-final. If only one team is left at full strength at the end of the playoffs, the premiership may well be the easiest to have been won.

NRL boss Peter V’landys is a renowned numbers man.

Earlier this season, when the expanded “six again” rule was cited as a reason for a spate of injuries, the NRL countered with data to show the........

© The Sydney Morning Herald