The image was confronting: Venezuela’s President, Nicolás Maduro, handcuffed aboard a United States warship, the USS Iwo Jima. It was a moment that made clear 2026 will be no calmer than the year before. From Australia, this may appear a distant drama in the Americas, tied to Washington’s long-running efforts to counter narcotics trafficking. But that framing misses the point.

Pro-government supporters attend a rally a day after the capture of Nicolás Maduro.Credit: Getty Images

What unfolded in Venezuela exposes a growing tension at the heart of today’s global order. On one hand sits a faltering system of international law, anchored in the UN Charter, designed to restrain the use of force. On the other sits deterrence aimed at preventing use of force, increasingly tested in a world where adversaries question the willingness of major powers to act. The US response signals a decision to privilege deterrence over legal restraint. The consequences may be stark, but the reality of geopolitics is rarely clean. Recognising that reality is not the same as endorsing it.

This shift matters well beyond Latin America, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. It suggests a United States prepared to act decisively, and unilaterally, when it judges its interests to be at stake. These actions are controversial and ethically........

© The Sydney Morning Herald