An unhappy birthday for Trump: His Iran deal – and presidency – on the brink

June 14, 2026 — 12:14pm

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Three days after President Donald Trump said the Iran deal was complete and would be signed on Sunday, his birthday, there is no agreed time on the signing. Earlier, a senior US official expected closure in “the next few days”. Iran’s Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed the Supreme Leader was on board, but also said Iran wanted Israel out of Lebanon and would control the reopened Strait of Hormuz, ultimately with payment for passage.

These conditions are big “ifs”. If Iran reneges, after all of Trump’s many threats (“a whole civilisation will die tonight”) since he demanded its “unconditional surrender” in March, it would be the second time that the ayatollahs have humiliated a US president desperate for a deal.

On January 20, 1981, 444 days after the US embassy in Tehran was stormed in Ayatollah Khomeini’s Islamic revolution with 66 Americans taken hostage, and after months of negotiation, they were not released until president Jimmy Carter’s successor, Ronald Reagan, was sworn into office that day. The Iranians made sure Carter could not claim the successful return of the hostages on his watch as commander-in-chief.

Carter’s approval rating that day was 34 per cent. After 100 days of war with Iran, Trump’s approval rating is in the........

© The Sydney Morning Herald