President Donald Trump’s intentions to strike a peace deal in Ukraine without security guarantees for Kyiv and his possible relinquishing of America’s role as supreme allied commander of NATO have sparked concern among allies. U.S. partners are wondering if Washington is abandoning its 80 year military commitments in Asia and Europe, and many are asking what measures they need to take to secure themselves during Trump 2.0.

In short, friends of America are worried that Washington’s approach to overseas military commitments is over and that forthcoming economic and geopolitical realignments will make them less secure. Few should be surprised of where things appear to be heading. Trump has long expressed doubt about the utility of Nato and America’s defence of others. Trump’s unorthodox views towards America’s military alliances goes back to at least 1987 at which time the then 41-year old real estate developer bought newspaper ads criticizing Japan and Europe for not paying their proper share for common defence.

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During the 2024 presidential campaign, candidate Trump stated he would not defend Nato-member countries who do not meet defence spending targets. Additionally, on different occasions Trump has cast doubts about his willingness to defend Taiwan, suggesting that efforts to ward off a Chinese invasion are impractical given the island state’s proximity to mainland China. President Trump’s recent opposition to including U.S. security guarantees in the Ukraine minerals deal is only the latest example reflecting his unconventional approach to foreign policy.

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Put simply, Washington’s abandonment of its prior role as underwriter of the global order weakens deterrence and increases prospects of great power conflicts, nuclear exchange and world wars. Whether or not Trump 2.0’s approach will be adopted by future administrations remains unclear.........

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