It is a long haul until the midterm elections in November. Many threats and deadlines will have been issued to Iran in that time, many cycles of optimism and pessimism will have been completed. The war may be over, or Donald Trump may be bogged down in an intractable conflict which he privately wishes he had never started.

Regardless, his administration must start preparing for what looks to be an increasing certainty: that the Republicans will suffer a heavy electoral reversal. That was looking likely even before Iran and its effect on oil prices. The President’s tariff wars have protected some, but the overall effect on blue- collar jobs has been negative. Moreover, at 3.3 percent, consumer inflation is back at the sort of levels which helped stop Kamala Harris from winning.

It is voters who are left to suffer the fallout from Trump’s dramatic conversion to military interventionism

It is voters who are left to suffer the fallout from Trump’s dramatic conversion to military interventionism

The political wind in America is blowing away from a culture war between liberals and conservatives and back toward plain economics. Despite the stock market highs, low-income voters who thought Trump was on their side are struggling to see any positive effect on their living standards.

Even if Trump stages a remarkable political comeback over the summer – and this magazine never discounts his ability to pull off astounding electoral feats........

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