Before the first missiles landed in Tehran, Rachel Reeves was looking forward to today. Her spring ‘forecast’ statement was going to be a doddle. The plan – to have the smallest intervention by a Chancellor since Philip Hammond in the spring of 2018 – was a sensible one.

Britain’s fragile economy could not have handled months of speculation about black holes, tax hikes and gilt yields. So, at the November Budget, the Chancellor made clear that there would be no scoring of her fiscal rules by the OBR this time round, no tax announcements and no major policy changes either. No rabbits inside hats or rats under rocks.

The Treasury, this time, has succeeded. There has been barely any speculation in the run-up to today’s statement. In fact, it would not surprise me if most of the country were not even aware that there is a spring statement today. The only question that has even really been discussed has been how small today’s measures will turn out to be.

Markets were calm when the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) finished their work last week. That was until all hell broke loose in the Middle East. As markets opened overnight into Monday, we saw oil and gas prices spike, stock markets collapse and bond yields move sharply. A fifth of the world’s supply of liquid natural........

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