At the very time when those warmongering Nato nations are pledging to raise their defence spending substantially, that doveish peacenik Vladimir Putin is promising to reduce his. It’s hard to know which of these two commitments is less plausible, but those anticipating the cranking down of the Russian war economy any time soon are going to have to wait rather longer.

At the recent St Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), Putin said that:

We are planning to reduce defence spending. For next year and the year after that and so on – for the next three years – we are planning to do so, although there is not yet a final agreement between the Ministry of Defence, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Economic Development, but overall everyone is thinking in that direction.

The real risk for Putin is of prolonged economic decline, recession and stagflation

In part, this was a response to the decision at last week’s Nato summit to commit alliance members to a planned 5 per cent spend on defence. Of course, this is only a target and – just as not all members hit the previous 2 per cent figure – most will only slowly, if ever, reach this level. Spain, for example, has incurred the wrath of Donald Trump by already opting out, with Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez saying that 2.1 per cent is ‘sufficient and........

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