‘We need to deport, deport, deport!’ Björn Höcke, leader of the Alternative für Deutschland in Thuringia, emphasises each word with a clenched fist. It’s a hot Saturday evening in the small town of Arnstadt and Höcke is launching the AfD’s state election campaign. His branch of the party has been categorised as ‘indisputably far right’ not just by the press but by German domestic intelligence. Nonetheless, it’s leading in the polls ahead of three east German state elections, two of which take place on Sunday. Höcke could well end up ‘Minister President’ of Thuringia.

The atrocity has shaken Germany more than any event since the terror attack in Berlin’s Breitscheidplatz eight years ago. There was a similar attack in May, when a policeman was stabbed to death by an Afghan who arrived in Germany as a 14-year-old a decade ago. Olaf Scholz, the Chancellor, is discovering – as Rishi Sunak did – the legal obstacles to deportation. He is also about to discover the electoral penalty paid for failure. He’s expected to lose next year’s federal election and his party, the Social Democrats, may struggle to qualify for the 5 per cent threshold in Saxony and Thuringia.

Germany, which Keir Starmer visited this week, is struggling not just with economic difficulties but with a surge in crime that many link to the three million refugees who have arrived since Angela Merkel’s ‘We can do this!’ wave of migration in 2015. These elements collided last week in the town of Solingen, where three people were stabbed to death at a festival. Police dogs traced the suspect to a refugee hostel. A Syrian asylum seeker who dodged deportation has claimed responsibility. The Islamic State says he acted under its orders.

Höcke lost little time before declaring immigration to be the ‘mother of all crises’ for Germany

In all three eastern states, the AfD is now the strongest political force, with a 25 to 30 per cent vote share. The narrative it is presenting to voters is clear: that the Solingen attack is just the latest proof that a war is on against Germans and that it’s time to fight back. Social media has been ablaze with the hashtag #HöckeOderSolingen: ‘either Höcke, or Solingen’. His ‘deport, deport’ politics, runs the argument, is the only way of preventing more Islamist attacks. Scholz says immigration levels are falling, but the AfD says it’s too late.

If Germany’s economy were booming, with immigrants settling into a strong jobs market, things might be different. But Scholz’s three-party coalition is presiding over an economy that is shrinking with no recovery in sight. Germany has been slow to adapt to the digital world, with its overreliance on old analogue industries. This has left deep-seated problems. Germany has become the growth laggard of Europe, and the size of its workforce is expected to decline faster than in any other major economy.

On top of this, violent crime is escalating. In Berlin alone, burglaries are up by a third in a year. Serious bodily harm is at an all-time high and police say that 40 per cent of all crime suspects are foreign nationals. Police are calling for extra tools to handle a new wave of knife crime from a new type of criminal. There is plenty to point to for those arguing that Germany’s economic and political models are broken.

Höcke senses his moment. ‘Germans! Thuringians! Do you really want to get used to these conditions?’ he asked after the Solingen attack. ‘Free yourselves. Finally put an end to the misguided path of forced multiculturalism! Protect your children!’ On Monday night, men dressed in black marched through Solingen, shouting ‘Foreigners out!’ as they passed Turkish and Arab cafés. One protestor was........

© The Spectator