St Joseph’s College in Reading survived two world wars, the Great Depression and a pandemic. But it could not weather two years under this Labour government. Next month, its 500 pupils will be among thousands across the country who do not return to the schools from which they broke up for the summer holidays. These are the casualties of the government’s decision to impose VAT on private school fees and remove business rate relief – a policy ministers promised would not have such consequences.

We still haven’t seen the full effects of Labour’s recklessness. The true damage will take time to set in. We know that during the financial crisis, parents struggling to pay fees avoided moving their children until they reached a natural break in their education: the end of primary school, GCSEs or a key stage. Governors exhaust every alternative before admitting defeat, pursuing mergers, selling assets and cutting costs in the hope of surviving another year. But the rot has set in, and faster than expected.

Girls’ schools are disproportionately struggling. More than twice as many have closed as boys’ schools

Girls’ schools are disproportionately struggling. More than twice as many have closed as boys’ schools

Century-old Victorian institutions are closing or morphing into unrecognisable organisations. It will not be long before we are left with a sector transformed: a small number of globally elite schools with fees so high they function only as finishing schools for the rich; parents obtaining certificates proving their child has deficiencies which cannot be accommodated in the state sector; and a handful of religious and eccentric schools able to obtain funding outside of normal fees.

The Department for Education (DfE) initially predicted that 14,000 pupils would leave the private sector by this summer. So far, the figure is 30,000 pupils, at least. Sarah Cunnane, from the Independent Schools Council, describes the rate of closures as ‘very concerning’ and suggests that healthy schools, which ‘would have been open for years to come’ and which were not previously in financial trouble, are at risk.

The changes to VAT and business rate relief did not land in isolation. Schools have also had to absorb the increase in employer national insurance contributions (NICs) and the minimum wage, both introduced in April last year. State schools received additional public funding to offset the higher NIC bill; independent schools did not. For a sector where staffing accounts for the majority of costs, the effect has been severe.

Proponents of charging VAT only want to talk about Eton and Harrow. But Britain’s elite public schools were never going to fall victim to this policy. These schools know they can pass on costs to parents. And if British parents can’t pay, there is no shortage of wealthier international families who will stump up to secure a British education.

Richer schools have also been cushioned by endowments and donations. The regional pattern is revealing: 9.6 per cent of mainstream independent schools in the East Midlands have closed since January last year, compared with 3.9 per cent in London and 3.6 per cent in the south-west.

Burnham and Powell want to bring back stupid

Does Lucy Powell really think........

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