When strategists on both sides look at the 2026 Senate map, the state at the top of the list of those most likely to switch parties is North Carolina, where Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is retiring and former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper has a significant lead in the race to replace him.

In the RealClearPolitics average of polls at this moment, Cooper has a 9-point lead over Republican Michael Whatley, a former chairman of the state GOP. Cooper has been in front for the entire race; going back to March, his solid and steady lead has never been smaller than 6.5 points or larger than the current 9 points.

A recent poll done for the American Association of Retired Persons by Tony Fabrizio — best known as President Donald Trump’s pollster — and Democratic pollster John Anzalone suggests Republicans are in even more trouble than it earlier appeared. Cooper has an 11-point lead, 53% to 42%, in the new survey.

Why? Much of the answer lies in fundamentals. For example, a president’s job approval rating has long been a strong predictor of midterm results, and in North........

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