The determination of Pakistan’s defence budget should be guided by a mathematical, data-driven approach. This approach should rest on three pillars: optimising limited resources, quantifying threats, and balancing strategic trade-offs. Applying advanced tools such as Game Theory, Dynamic Programming, and Threat Quantification models can significantly enhance precision in decision-making.

Pakistan’s GDP is $411 billion, and federal revenues total $62 billion. In assessing national security priorities, three categories of threats must be quantified: external threats, internal threats, and emerging threats. Among external threats, two stand out as the most significant, together accounting for 65 per cent of the total threat weight -- India at 45 per cent and the Afghanistan border at 20 per cent.

Under the Indian threat, the most likely scenario is a medium-to-high........

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