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Guest Essay

By Jonathan Alter

Mr. Alter is a contributing Opinion writer.

Call it a political upset for the ages or just a pipe dream, but Democrats should put aside their anxiety for a moment and imagine this scenario next week: Kamala Harris wins the presidency, Democrats take the House and they beat the odds by holding most of their Senate seats and pulling off at least one surprise victory (Texas? Florida? Nebraska?) that lets them maintain power in that chamber.

Unlikely, you say, and you’re probably right. A more probable outcome is divided government, which would bring a combination of gridlock and incremental change.

But let’s assume we all get to live on Fantasy Island for a couple of years before the 2026 midterms. Top Senate Democrats tell me they’re already thinking about what they could do with a congressional majority, and Democratic voters should do the same.

Just think: Marjorie Taylor Greene, Matt Gaetz and Jim Jordan would become obnoxious sideshows, not preening power brokers. The pragmatic Hakeem Jeffries becomes the first Black speaker of the House and joins the first woman president in a fresh tableau for the country and the admiring world.

If that shimmering possibility doesn’t motivate Democrats to work even harder using computer home-based phone bank tools to get out the vote, I don’t know what will. And that’s just as true for congressional races as for the presidential contest.

“Our priorities would finally get a chance,” Senator Dick Durbin, the majority whip, told me. “We have to do something substantial. Nothing cosmetic will do.”

Senator Ron Wyden, the chairman of the powerful Senate Finance Committee, argued that even a narrow sweep in November would give Ms. Harris a shot at an F.D.R.-style first 100 days: “If you run the table, you’re going to have a lot of momentum.”

Democratic voters need to keep their expectations reasonable; wish lists are never entirely fulfilled. The Senate majority leader, Chuck Schumer, is a savvy vote counter, but there are some things he won’t count: chickens before they hatch. He’s too superstitious to talk publicly about what would happen if his party holds the Senate. But I was able to harvest enough well-informed Washington speculation to get a sense of the possible fruits of victory — some low-hanging, others higher in the trees.

At a minimum, a Democratic sweep would protect President Biden’s legacy of investments in electric vehicle infrastructure, more affordable Obamacare premiums, kitchen table initiatives (mostly in the form of tax subsidies for the middle class), gun safety and clean energy. At the same time, Americans could reasonably anticipate new progress on abortion rights, voting rights, immigration, child tax credits, help for small business, affordable housing, paid family leave, home health care under Medicare, tax fairness and the appointment of liberal judges. Democrats eying that mouthwatering menu have reason to believe they could enjoy a feast.

Imagine securing reproductive rights nationwide, moving the conversation from protecting democracy to strengthening it, cutting child poverty nearly in half and finally making billionaires pay their fair share of income taxes. The challenge of reconciling dreams and reality would remain, of course. But instead of a prevent-defense, Democrats would then be inside the red team’s red zone, poised to put real points on the board.

For the past 20 years, I’ve been intrigued by presidential debuts. I’ve written books that chronicled Franklin Roosevelt’s first 100 days in 1933, Jimmy Carter’s undervalued legislative record in 1977 and ’78 and Barack Obama’s tumultuous 2009. Those Democratic presidents each enjoyed strong Democratic majorities in both chambers but still faced challenges in getting their programs approved.

If elected, Ms. Harris would actually have it a little easier than some of her predecessors. Her majorities would be slim, as Mr. Biden’s were in 2021 and ’22, when, as vice president, Ms. Harris had to break ties in the Senate. But for all the fractiousness of Congress, the surprising Democratic unity under Mr. Biden would probably continue in 2025. That could mean a mammoth reconciliation package of legislation (which can be approved with 50 votes and the vice president breaking the tie) that would contain major chunks of Ms. Harris’s “Opportunity economy.”

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