Two Ukrainian soldiers moving in a trench during combat training in August 2025. (Shutterstock/Jose Hernandez Camera 51)

Russia Is Slowing Down in Ukraine—but Losing Fewer Men, Too

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Russia is on track to lose 1.3 million men in the war by the time of its fourth anniversary next week.

The Russian forces continue to suffer heavy losses on a daily basis on the battlefield in Ukraine—but the current rate of attrition is smaller than during more heated periods of fighting towards the end of 2025.  

Russia’s total casualties are thought to be approaching 1.3 million killed and wounded, as the fourth-year anniversary of the war approaches on Tuesday, February 24.

Russia’s Battlefield Losses Are Lower than Last Year—but Still High

In January, the Russian military, paramilitary units, and pro-Russian separatist forces lost approximately 1,023 men killed and wounded every day, according to the British Ministry of Defence. This was a slight decrease from December, when the Russian forces took approximately 1,130 casualties killed and wounded on a daily basis. 

January is the first month since August to show a decrease in Russia’s daily average losses. Nevertheless, the total number of casualties far exceeds what the Kremlin—or indeed anyone—would have expected when Russian President Vladimir Putin gave the green light for the “special military operation” in Ukraine.   

“Russia has likely sustained approximately 1,245,000 casualties (killed and wounded) since launching the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and approximately 40,000 so far in 2026,” the British Ministry of Defence assessed in its latest intelligence estimate on the conflict in Ukraine.

These numbers are based on data released by the Ukrainian General Staff. Of course, Kyiv has an incentive to inflate Russia’s casualty numbers for propaganda reasons—presenting a more dire, but inaccurate, situation for Russian forces. However, so far, its reporting has apparently been honest, bolstering its long-term credibility. Indeed, Western intelligence agencies and militaries often corroborate Kyiv’s figures through their own independent assessments.

One area on which Ukrainian and Western estimates of Russian losses vary has been in the materiel losses of the Russian forces. Kyiv has claimed that the Russian military has been losing vast numbers of main battle tanks, artillery systems, infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers, unmanned aerial systems, tactical vehicles, and other heavy weapon systems. Western reporting has been more conservative on this front—while still acknowledging that the Russians have lost tens of thousands of heavy weapon systems to Ukrainian action.

Russia’s Offensive Is Ongoing, but Slow

The Russian military is attacking along the contact line, focusing on multiple axes of advance—particularly in the hotly contested Donbas region of Ukraine’s east.  

“Russian Ground Forces continue to attack along multiple areas of the frontline. Territorial gains in January 2026 are likely lower than in November 2025 and December 2025, which is consistent with in-year trends,” the British Ministry of Defence added.  

However, focusing on multiple axes of advance is not conducive to an operational breakthrough. Instead of focusing its forces on a single point in the Ukrainian defensive line and pushing hard for a breach that could lead to a breakthrough, the Russian forces are following an attritional strategy—attacking along the contact line and trying to inflict as many losses and fatigue on the Ukrainian defenders as possible, either in order to drive Kyiv to make greater concessions at the negotiating table or to bring about a collapse in Ukraine’s ability to fight. So far, neither outcome has occurred.

“The most likely scenario for the next six months is a continuation of attritional warfare. Russian advances will remain primarily tactical, mostly in areas less well-defended by Ukrainian forces,” the British Ministry of Defence concluded in its latest intelligence estimates.  

This preference for attritional warfare instead of maneuver warfare that could lead to an operational breakthrough implies an acceptance of the Russian military’s limitations when it comes to modern warfighting capabilities.  

About the Author: Stavros Atlamazoglou  

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.

© The National Interest