Although the American economy has its problems, the first quarter’s modest .3 percent economic decline is entirely misleading. Just about all the weakness comes from a predictable and temporary surge in imports as buyers tried to get ahead of anticipated Trump tariffs by loading up on cheap inventory while they still could. Because the Department of Commerce counts imports as a drag on the economy, this surge overwhelmed other aspects of the economy that showed strength, particularly a remarkable acceleration in capital spending by businesses. 

Especially as tariffs raise the costs of imported goods in coming months, such a surge will certainly not repeat and may well reverse. Meanwhile, other, stronger aspects of the economy seem likely to continue flexing their muscles. The acceleration in capital spending by businesses is especially encouraging. 

Because Trump’s tariffs were the most thoroughly advertised economic event of the last few months, the import surge was entirely predictable. In late 2024 and the opening months of 2025, no one knew where the tariffs would fall and how high they would be. Nonetheless, everyone knew that the cost of at least some imported goods was going to rise with a Trump presidency.

To get ahead of this price hike and secure as much comparatively cheap inventory as possible, buyers stepped up their overseas orders. Import flows leaped up by over

© The National Interest