Ebrahim Raisi’s sudden death last weekend renewed attention to the Iranian succession question. While Raisi was the frontrunner to succeed eighty-five-year-old Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, all bets are now off. The Iranian government may focus on replacing Raisi. Still, across Iran, the knives are out as clerics, Revolutionary Guard generals, aspiring politicians, and opposition groups plan for the real prize: determining who holds power the day after Khamenei’s death.

On paper, succession in Iran should not be a problem. The Assembly of Experts, an eighty-eight-member clerical body, chooses the next supreme leader. Nothing works as written, however. Prior to Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s death thirty-five years ago, leading luminaries from various power centers quietly negotiated and settled upon Khamenei, considered weak and non-threatening at the time, to be his future successor. The Assembly of Experts gave him the rubber stamp to confirm what others had already done.

A quick rubber stamp may not be in the works this time. The problem is three-fold. First, whatever internal power balance existed at the time of Khomeini’s death has ended. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, for example, is not only a military force but also a business conglomerate worth billions of dollars. They will not risk their financial interests for a leader they have not vetted or of whom they disapprove.

Second, unlike in the Sultanate of Oman, there is no specified time frame associated with succession. In Oman, there is a graduated process to deliver a successor after three days at a maximum. In Iran, the Assembly of Experts could choose a successor after two days or wait two years.

Third, the prize is immense. Khamenei has presided over a thirty-five-year dictatorship with not only vast religious and political power but also control over personal wealth greater than the gross domestic product of many Latin American, African, and even European countries. The odds may be against any specific man replacing Khamenei, especially if he is coming from the sidelines, but if succession comes just only once every few decades, why not try a “Hail Mahdi” pass?

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The American humorist Mark Twain once quipped,........

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