Chinese President Xi Jinping and Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei meet in January 2016 in Tehran. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said after the meeting that he and Xi had signed a “comprehensive 25-year document” on strategic relations. China will likely take action to protect that agreement if the US attacks Iran. (Office of Ayatollah Sayyed Ali Khamenei)

How China Is Hardening the Iran Target Before the American Attack

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China needs to protect its strategic cooperation agreement with Iran, so the superpower is selling military hardware and providing military intelligence. How else will it help?

China is commonly regarded as a superpower, and by many measures it is: its economy is No. 2 in nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and No. 1 if measured by Purchasing Power Parity; it is a permanent member of the United National Security Council (UNSC); it has a large and growing nuclear weapons arsenal; is the top trade partner of most of the world; and China’s unprecedented economic progress in three decades has not diluted its character as a “high-trust” society. 

But a superpower is as a superpower does, and superpowers will send the military to protect or advance their interests.

The US administration is threatening Iran with the next phase of the US-Israel attacks of June 2025 that killed many Iranian leaders and “obliterated” (in the words of US president Donald Trump) Iran’s nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. The Americans’ target is now Iran’s missile program and Iran has responded that the missiles — Iran’s only defense against Israeli and American attacks — are non-negotiable, though it is willing to discuss diluting (“downblending”)  its highly-enriched uranium if sanctions are lifted. 

Some observers feel China and Russia won’t lift a finger to help a weakened Iran, but Beijing and Moscow feel differently. China has no interest in its forces directly confronting the Americans — that will come later — but it has significant interests in Iran and the surrounding area and must act to protect its investments and its reputation as a dependable partner. 

Russia and China are not obligated to defend Iran if it is attacked by the US and Israel as they have no mutual defense treaties, though the three countries signed a trilateral strategic pact in January 2026 to strengthen political cooperation and deepen economic integration. 

Russia and Iran entered a 20-year Iranian–Russian Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in January 2025 which provides for defense cooperation, likely meaning arms sales and the sharing of intelligence on mutual threats. Russia is busy in Ukraine but it may feel obligated to send Iran intelligence and weapons, as the Iranian Shahed-136 drone gave Russia a boost in the war against NATO being fought in Ukraine. And, as tensions escalated, Middle East Monitor reported, in December 2025 Russia and Iran concluded a $589 million deal to rebuild Iran’s air defense system, though the aid will not arrive in time for the looming fight.  

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