In June, Russia and North Korea signed a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty. To some Western observers, this appears to be an alliance like the U.S.-South Korea bilateral alliance or even the NATO alliance. However, the history of Russia and North Korea relations makes this more likely a marriage of convenience or even a marriage of desperation: Definitely anti-U.S., but potentially far more fragile than one might otherwise expect.

It is therefore hard to predict exactly how this relationship will develop. Russia appears to have pursued it because it was desperate for munitions that could fill the needs for its invasion of Ukraine. And North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is desperate for food and other resources to calm his internal instabilities and to support his military programs. But China views the Russia-North Korea relationship as an affront to the Chinese goal of regional if not global dominance. So once the North Korean artillery and missile stocks are depleted, North Korea will have less to offer Russia, and Russia may decide that it is better to emphasize its relationship with China than its relationship with North Korea.

U.S. alliances are defensive, however, Russia and North Korea face no defensive requirement.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which appears to be driving its relationship with North Korea, is offensive, with Russia facing no threat of Ukraine conquering Russia. And while the North Korean regime is most vocal about facing U.S./South Korean attacks, the United States and South Korea have little or nothing to gain from invading the North and would pay immense costs in doing so given the catastrophic consequences of........

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