Imposter syndrome is a psychological pattern where a person doubts their skills, talents, or whether they deserve their success. How, then, would one describe the reverse? The Dunning-Kruger effect? Arrogance? A miscalculation?

The Russian opposition is a story of both at once, often to the same audience. It presents itself to the public at home and abroad, as well as foreign policymakers, as a government-in-waiting despite having neither the authority nor the influence it claims. When anyone asks what the movement has actually achieved through years of activism, it may brush off the question entirely, or present its powerlessness as a reason to support it. Little can be done, we are told, beyond publishing YouTube videos for audiences back home.

The Russian public is exhausted by the war. Look no further than state-controlled pollsters, whose popularity ratings for President Vladimir Putin dropped to their lowest since 2022. Peek at the mountains of content by creators, business owners and unhappy mothers describing economic and social instability. There is even a spike in online searches about how to leave Russia ahead of the mobilization Ukrainian authorities warn could take place in September.

Against this background, it is unsurprising that Yabloko, a party that spent years struggling to clear the five percent threshold needed for a seat in the State Duma, found itself at the center of the anti-Putin movement.

Then, on August 10, the Supreme Court annulled the registration of Yabloko's federal list of over 400 candidates following a lawsuit brought by the small nationalist party Rodina. The spurious grounds were foreign funding, "extremism" and copyright violations in campaign material. Five weeks before the vote, the state removed the only registered party running on "For Peace and Freedom" over something as trivial as intellectual property, in a country whose cinemas screen pirated Western films.

Soviet Dissidents Understood What Russia’s Exiled Opposition Has Forgotten

Thousands of miles away, Yabloko’s plight has become yet another cause for another split in an opposition that, while largely viewed as one cohesive unit by people outside Russia, is beset with division and rarely able to agree on anything.

The first camp is made up of hopeless romantics, be it the Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK) or any of its affiliates. Every election is an opportunity for........

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