SAN DIEGO – As the U.S.-Iran war threatens to ignite a worldwide energy crisis, another hotspot may come to a boil: Taiwan.

During a recent visit to Taipei, I didn’t need to read Mandarin to spot the lead news story every day: another step in China’s campaign to intimidate the island.

What once would have been deemed a crisis — People’s Liberation Army aircraft crossing the Taiwan Strait’s median line, PLA vessels and surveillance balloons pressing closer or Chinese authorities interrogating commercial ship captains — has become a daily ritual. For the Chinese government, this is a victory in itself. Constant gray-zone coercion is designed not only to frighten Taiwan but also to numb the rest of the world, making Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te sound like the tiresome boy who cried dragon.

Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s strategists watch Hormuz and study something even more valuable than naval frigates: American decision-making. How quickly does the United States respond to threats and attacks? How much political backlash can U.S. President Donald Trump tolerate? And how much economic pain are U.S. allies willing to bear? Every missile........

© The Japan Times