You wouldn’t think it, amid all the chaos and uncertainty in recent weeks, but despite the war raging over oil in the Middle East there are hopeful signs of an energy revolution. Fuel blockades, resignations and price shocks may be dominating the headlines, but the trend line depicts a decline in fossil fuel demand.

In 2025, the EU reached a tipping point with wind and solar generating more power than fossil fuels for the first time. And there’s no going back.

We’ve been here before. In the 1970s, the oil price tripled in 1973 and then doubled in 1979. But the shock led to dramatic increases in vehicle fuel efficiencies and diversification of energy sources beyond the Middle East. There were no substitutes back then for fossil energy besides nuclear power, but fossil fuel use per capita peaked in 1979 nonetheless. The crisis spawned an efficiency revolution that continues to this day. The Ford Cortina in which my father queued for petrol in 1979 was capable of about 25mpg. Its equivalent today can achieve up to 60mpg. But that is nothing compared with an electric vehicle (EV), which is three times more efficient again or an e-bike which is many times more efficient. There is no way back to cheap oil, so the clean and efficient alternative is the way to go.

Similarly, the energy shock caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led to gas prices in Europe spiking 180 per cent in 2022. While the Irish Government responded to this crisis with energy credits, Ireland saw a 160 per cent increase in solar energy between 2023 and 2025, and increases of 40 per cent in solar PV and heat pump installations across Europe.

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Shocks are deeply uncomfortable, but they force structural changes in both markets and behaviour. As the energy think tank Ember noted this week, shocks favour secure and efficient energy forms, and this is where renewable electricity has few rivals.

Advances in battery storage mean that solar energy combined with battery storage now costs below $60 (€50.97) per megawatt hour (MWh) which is around 40 per cent cheaper than a typical combined cycle gas turbine power plant. While costs vary in practice depending on the grid and market structure, renewables and battery storage comfortably beat fossil fuels in costs, rapid scalability and energy security terms.

Some researchers estimate that electrotech is already capturing two-thirds of global energy investment. The lessons for Ireland are obvious.

With import dependency comes volatility and insecurity. We need to accelerate grid investments so that we can fully utilise our plentiful renewable energy resources. Three quarters of all energy uses can be electrified with existing technologies, but electrification stalls if electricity prices are too high relative to other fuels.

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A recent ESRI report shows how closely Ireland’s electricity prices have tracked gas prices. Because of the high cost of gas peaker plants – power stations turned on mainly during times of high demand – gas prices drive up overall electricity costs. The more gas we use to generate electricity to balance the demand of large energy users like data centres, the higher electricity prices will be.

Severing the link between gas and electricity prices seems like an obvious move, but would require further electricity market reforms (for example, the environmental NGO Greenpeace has proposed a novel approach of delinking gas and electricity prices to the UK government by bringing gas plants into a strategic reserve).

But what we can do immediately is lessen the grid’s reliance on gas. We could take a lead from France’s grid operator. It has introduced an app called Ecowatt which sends text messages to encourage consumers to lower their electricity demand at times when the grid is forecast to come under strain. It works by showing a colour signal with hourly intervals for the next three days, encouraging people to avoid using appliances during peak demand.

Combined with people using less energy anyway due to higher prices, the text messages were part of a 15-point “energy sobriety” plan which helped cut electricity consumption by 10 per cent in the year of December 2022.

Even a five per cent reduction in peak electricity demand – which could be achieved with similar public information campaigns and time-of-use tariffs – would be significant for Ireland. Better information, competitive tariffs and clear guidance from the CRU (Commission for Regulation of Utilities) and utilities would enable consumers to shift their electricity consumption to times where renewable supply on grids is high and prices are low. The effect of lowering demand at peak times would be to lower the overall cost of electricity for everyone.

Solar panels can reduce electricity bills dramatically (by up to 70 per cent). Coupled with EV charging and time of use tariffs, even greater energy savings are possible. But those who do not own their own homes cannot benefit from microgeneration or retrofitting grants. Making affordable clean energy available to everyone regardless of income, especially in the rental sector and in rural areas poorly served by public transport, should be the priority for Government subsidies.

Sadhbh O’ Neill is a climate and environmental researcher

© The Irish Times