British prime minister Andy Burnham caused a flap when he said holding a poll on Irish unity was “off the table”. To some, his words seemed categorical, dismissive and at variance with the Belfast Agreement, which provides for a poll on Irish unity to ascertain the wishes of a majority of the people of Northern Ireland. It obliges the British and Irish governments to give effect to the outcome of the poll if a majority vote for a united Ireland.

On the face of it, the entitlements of the people of Northern Ireland to a poll and the corresponding obligations of the British government to hold one if it appears to the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland likely that a majority if polled would vote for Irish unity, are never “off the table”. These are continual and enduring rights and duties.

But the Belfast Agreement also recites, and the parties to the agreement and the two governments acknowledged, that the majority in 1998 favoured remaining in the United Kingdom. That was the factual position then. Has it changed? Has Brexit and demography and politics changed that pro-union majority into a minority?

While it could be argued that the Secretary of State could hold a poll without being of the view that, as a matter of........

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