Will the far-right populist nationalist leader Marine Le Pen or her protege Jordan Bardella be elected president of France in April 2027?

Enda O’Doherty, who previously worked on the foreign desk of this newspaper and is the author of the forthcoming The Dark Side of France: Thirteen Chapters in the History of the French Far Right, cites the journalistic adage known as Betteridge’s Law, which states that “any newspaper headline that ends with a question mark can be answered by the word No”.

Victor Mallet, a foreign correspondent for the Financial Times, writes in Far-Right France: Le Pen, Bardella and the Future of Europe: “The far right is likely to come to power in France in one way or another in the years ahead.” Mallet says progressive liberals are too complacent about that probability, just as they failed to foresee Brexit and Donald Trump’s first election.

Until Le Pen was convicted in March 2025 of embezzling €1.4 million in EU Parliament funds to pay RN party workers in Paris, her election was considered almost a foregone conclusion. A French judge made her ineligible for elected office for five years. Her legal appeal will be decided on July 7th.

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If Le Pen is not allowed to stand, Bardella, the 30-year-old MEP whom Le Pen elevated to head her party in 2022, will be the RN candidate.........

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