Brian Feeney and I were once guest speakers at a united Ireland conference hosted by Sinn Féin in Dublin’s Mansion House in January 2017.

They loved Brian (and who doesn’t, of course), but not me.

I still remember the wall of silence that greeted my comment that there was no aspect of a united Ireland which could safeguard my unionist identity.

Quite a few of them were also really grumpy when I added that Sinn Féin was entirely the wrong vehicle to promote the benefits of Irish unity to a non-SF audience in Northern Ireland.

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When I was leaving afterwards, a member of the audience stopped me: “You’re right about a border poll being off the agenda.”

She then went on to explain that the last thing an Irish government wanted any time soon was having to deal with “hundreds of thousands of pissed off unionists who found themselves on the losing side of a poll”.

I was particularly struck by what she said next.

She argued that Sinn Féin had one goal and one goal only. The problem was that they hadn’t convinced a majority in Northern Ireland that Irish unity was a runner and were nowhere close to convincing a majority in the south.

When I asked her why Sinn Féin kept on pushing and pushing, she replied (and this is a slight paraphrasing from memory): “For Sinn Féin, the Brexit result is the sort of ‘England’s misfortune is Ireland’s opportunity’ moment they have been praying for. They need to win the argument now or wait another couple of generations.”

Well, two years later, in January 2019, there was an incredibly significant shift in local nationalist dynamics with the launch of Beyond Brexit – The Future of Ireland (if memory serves, you were involved).

It was the most important gathering of nationalist political and civic groups in my lifetime.

Loudest cheer of the day was for Colin Harvey: “We will not apologise – and we will not be asking permission – for seeking to get rid of the border in Ireland and seeking to unite our own country.”

In some commentary in the days after the event, I wondered if it might be marking the potential beginning of nationalism’s withdrawal from the Assembly/Executive parts of the Good Friday Agreement.

Sinn Féin had already collapsed the institutions in January 2017, supposedly on the back of Arlene Foster and the RHI ‘scandal’, but to be honest I was never entirely convinced by that reasoning.

I wrote at the time – in this newspaper, I think – that there was increasing evidence that Sinn Féin’s grassroots were not happy with the DUP/SF relationship and were particularly unhappy with Foster.

Over the past seven years, I haven’t changed my mind about nationalism’s shift of emphasis.

Indeed, I’ve now reached the stage of accepting that neither the SDLP nor Sinn Féin express any long-term political or electoral interest in prioritising the value of the Assembly/Executive; and, as we know from a long run of LucidTalk polls, there is scant evidence to suggest that non-party-political nationalism is invested in the institutions, either.

But, there is an unpleasant reality which needs to be faced.

And that is that the polling in favour of Irish unity is not really running in nationalism’s favour.

The terms and conditions required for a border poll remain as mysterious as ever.

The Irish government has no interest in pushing unity. And I sense that the oomph has gone out of Ireland’s Future events.

So, is it time to admit that the ‘England’s misfortune…’ moment has passed by with not much change?

Fair enough, unionism is miffed and still angry with a British government. Yet, let’s be honest, a miffed psyche is part and parcel of being a unionist.

Here’s where we are. Northern Ireland is still in the UK and likely to remain so for quite some time.

The post-2016 enthusiasm for Irish unity has dampened down and won’t ever get the required traction until the British and Irish governments agree that it’s time for a border poll.

There are actually moments when nationalism seems angrier now with Dublin than with London.

Maybe, just maybe, a rethink is required: a rethink which must embrace unionism too.

Nationalism and unionism are stuck together in the same place, with little chance of a just-around-the-corner change to the constitutional status quo.

In the meantime, why don’t the parties in the Assembly jointly commit themselves to something as close as is possible to good government.

One way or another we are stuck with each other – in or out of the UK – for a very long time.

Nationalists miffed with Dublin. Unionists miffed with London.

Is that a possible basis on which we could actually work better together? Or at least try.

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