Attacks between Israel and Hezbollah, the militia and political party based just across Israel’s northern border with Lebanon, are fueling fears that a wider regional conflict may erupt any day.

Hezbollah, an Iran-backed Shia group loosely allied with Hamas, has been in a low-level war with Israel since the conflict in Gaza began last October. Hezbollah, which is believed to have an arsenal of more than 150,000 rockets and missiles, has repeatedly emphasized that attacks will continue as long as the war persists.

Over the weekend, a rocket attack that the U.S. and Israel said originated in Lebanon killed at least 12 civilians in the Israel-controlled Golan Heights. The Israeli foreign minister said that the attack “crossed all red lines,” and said “the moment of all-out war against Hezbollah and Lebanon” is approaching. Hezbollah denied responsibility for the strike.

On Monday, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken cautioned Israeli President Isaac Herzog about ramping up its war with Hezbollah in response on a call, according to State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller.

But the conflict has been escalating for weeks. Israel has increased airstrikes aimed at the group. Current and former Israeli officials have also spoken publicly about shifting their attention from Hamas to the more powerful Hezbollah.

After Israeli officials warned of the possibility of launching a war that would send Lebanon “back to the Stone Age,” the Biden administration intensified diplomatic efforts to defuse tensions and forestall a conflict that U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said could have “terrible consequences for the Middle East.”

The low-level war has created a tinderbox that could explode into a regional conflict involving Iran, Iraq, Syria, Turkey, Yemen and, to an even greater extent than now, the United States.

Lebanon and Israel are both U.S. allies, and America has poured billions of dollars in military aid into Lebanon, trained tens of thousands of its troops, and operated a proxy commando unit run by U.S. Special Operations forces there for years.

After all that aid and billions of dollars in support, Hezbollah remains Lebanon’s dominant military force and a quasi-“state within a state” that wields significant influence in Lebanon’s government. Israel’s war on Gaza has only bolstered the group’s support, according to some metrics.

While Hezbollah’s popularity is centered in Lebanon’s south and east, the group has gained support among non-Shiite Lebanese across the country since the outbreak of the war in Gaza due to its resistance to Israel, according to a survey by the Arab Barometer.

The U.S. has also contributed to the group’s sway, says Erik Sperling of Just Foreign Policy, an advocacy group critical of mainstream Washington foreign policy. “U.S. support for the mass killing of Palestinians is so indefensible that it is actually strengthening groups like Hezbollah, who are able to capitalize on their firm but relatively restrained opposition to U.S.-Israeli actions,” he told The Intercept.

In Lebanon’s south, the conflict with Israel in the past year has left towns and villages deserted and destroyed. More than 1,900 casualties, including 466 deaths, have been reported and almost 100,000 residents have........

© The Intercept