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Decoding US-China competition

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22.10.2025

Expectations are high for the scheduled summit between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea at the end of October. With tensions growing from the tariff war, many hope that the two leaders can stabilize the U.S.-China relationship and strike a trade deal.

But the structural competition between a rising power and a dominant power means tensions will always be present in the U.S.-China relationship. Even if Trump and Xi can reach some agreement, the competitive nature of the relationship will remain.

Scholars have attempted to explain why the U.S.–China dynamics have changed in the 21st century. Among various interpretations, the “power transition” theory and its modified versions, such as the so-called “Thucydides’ Trap” remain cogent in underlining the changing global power structure as the main cause of conflict.

Another oft-cited explanation includes evolving domestic imperatives and the emergence of authoritarian leaders like Trump and Xi. Both Trump and Xi face domestic pressures that may force them to adopt more aggressive foreign policies. For Trump, it means scapegoating immigrants and U.S. trading partners........

© The Hill