The Federal Reserve looks set to maintain its pause on interest rate cuts at its meeting this week amid President Trump’s ongoing trade war and geopolitical tensions that are roiling commodity markets.

Markets expect the Fed to keep interbank lending rates steady at a range of 4.25 to 4.5 percent, where they’ve been since January. The CME FedWatch tool put the chances of a pause at 99.8 percent on Tuesday.

The mix of touchy economic data, frequent trade policy developments and international tensions will justify the expected pause, economists say.

“Uncertainty around the direction of inflation, a relatively stable labor market and fluctuating tariff policy are enough for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged,” Jerry Tempelman, vice president of fixed income research at Mutual of America Capital Management, wrote in a commentary Tuesday. “Conflict in the Middle East presents another worry.”

Major economic indicators have been in a holding pattern for the past few months, with consumers and businesses behaving cautiously as President Trump’s trade war has played out.

The unemployment rate has held at 4.2 percent in its last three readings after ticking up slightly in February and March. There are about 7 million people looking for a job out of a U.S. labor force of 170 million.

Inflation has hovered between 2.3 and 2.4 percent since March. Price increases cooled from 3 percent down to 2.3 percent between January and April but ticked up to 2.4 percent in May — possibly the first upward move in the price level attributable to tariffs.

U.S. inventories take about three months to........

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