The Memo: Trump looks for the off-ramp on Iran

President Trump seemed to begin a de-escalation of the war on Iran on Monday, sparking a relief rally in financial markets and sending the price of oil tumbling. 

But Trump did not dispel confusion over exactly what’s going on, nor did he erase deeper doubts about what comes next.

It seems clear that Trump is looking for an off-ramp from a war that has proven unpopular at home and has rattled the global economy, even though it is not yet a month old.

The president’s critics will say he is backing down from an ill-conceived and poorly defined conflict. His supporters will contend he is sticking to his promise of keeping military operations brief and that he has significantly degraded Iran’s capabilities. And the leadership of the Islamic Republic will claim a moral victory if it can merely survive the joint U.S.-Israeli assault — an outcome that appears increasingly likely.

The key moment on Monday came from Trump, on social media.

Shortly before 7:30 a.m. EDT, he posted that the U.S. and Iran, during the previous two days, “have had … very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East.”

Trump further explained that the nature of those discussions meant that he had decided to postpone any strikes against Iran’s power plants and energy infrastructure “for a five day period, subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions.”

The post amounted to a revocation of Trump’s earlier ultimatum, delivered Saturday evening, that Iran would have to “fully open” the Strait of Hormuz within the following 48 hours, otherwise the U.S. would “obliterate their various power plants, starting with the biggest one first!”

Under normal circumstances, around 20 percent of the world’s oil transits through the narrow shipping channel off the Iranian coast. Tehran’s strategic success in maintaining a significant blockage of the strait has been the single biggest factor in sending oil and fuel prices soaring globally. 

In the United States, the average price of a gallon of gas on Sunday was roughly a dollar more expensive than it had been a month previously, according to data from AAA.

Trump’s announcement caused a reversal in the oil-price trend, at least for the moment. As of late Monday afternoon, the price of Brent crude oil had plummeted almost 11 percent for the day.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained more than 600 points, rising almost 1.4 percent. The other major indices — the broader-based S&P 500 and the tech-focused Nasdaq composite — rose by similar margins.

But whether those gains will be sustained depends in large part on whether the U.S., Iran and Israel do indeed move further on down the exit path from the conflict.

There are many key unknowables at this stage: Whether there really are meaningful talks taking place between Washington and Tehran, whether economic instability will wane or return, and what fate awaits the people of the region, from dissenting Iranians who bridle against the current regime to Lebanese people struggling under an Israeli invasion.

The Iranian leadership denied that there were any direct negotiations taking place.

The speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, posted on social media, “No negotiations have been held with the US.” Ghalibaf also used one of Trump’s signature phrases against him, suggesting that “fakenews” was being “used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped.”

Trump, speaking with reporters in Florida, insisted that the U.S. was speaking with “a top person” in the Iranian leadership, adding this was “the man who, I believe, is the most respected and the leader.” 

But he did not name the person he had in mind and, in response to a question, said he was not referring to Iran’s supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.

Later on Monday, The Associated Press reported that messages between the U.S. and Iran had been exchanged over the weekend through intermediary nations, naming Egypt, Turkey and Pakistan.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in a brief video statement, said that he had spoken with Trump and that the president “believes there is an opportunity to leverage the tremendous achievements we have attained with the U.S. military to realize the war’s objectives in an agreement — an agreement that will safeguard our vital interests.”

While the statement was supportive, it was notable that Netanyahu did not explicitly say he shared Trump’s assessment. One of many vexing issues around the war is whether Israel would continue with its assault on Iran even if the U.S. halted its military actions.

On the flip side, it’s also possible that Trump is bluffing or playing for time to get more American forces to the region. The Wall Street Journal noted Monday afternoon that “thousands of U.S. Marines” are due to arrive in the Middle East on Friday, the same day as Trump’s new five-day deadline.

The degree to which those timelines dovetail will fuel Iranian suspicions that the volatile Trump could shift yet again, declaring talks to be a failure and deploying U.S. ground forces to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz or to seize other key assets, such as Kharg Island.

However, any deployment of U.S. ground forces on Iranian territory would be a massive gamble, even for a political risk-taker like Trump.

For the moment, the world watches, trying to figure out if an enduring settlement to the war might be found. 

Trump being Trump, he will likely claim victory whatever happens.  But for everyone else, much is hazy — including what shape a deal could take.

The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.

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