Ranking the Republican 2028 contenders

President Trump dominates the political landscape, holding off lame-duck status for now.

But some signs are emerging that prominent members of his party are readying 2028 presidential bids. Those moves are only likely to accelerate after November’s midterms.

A post-Trump landscape will be tricky to navigate. The president has transformed his party during his decade in political life, shifting its policy positions on topics from immigration to trade, and transforming the tenor in which it conducts debate.

One big question for Republican primary voters in 2028 is whether they would prefer a nominee who tries to replicate Trump’s approach or one who seeks to write a new page.

There are plenty of options — assuming, of course, that Trump does not find a pretext to seek a third term. This is prohibited by any normal reading of the Constitution. Even Trump seems to — mostly — acknowledge it’s not possible.

Here are The Hill’s rankings:

1. Vice President Vance

Vice President Vance is the obvious heir apparent — as any vice president so much younger than the commander in chief would be.

Vance, 42, has always had a lot of backing within Trump’s inner circle, which helped him to be chosen as the president’s 2024 running mate in the first place.

Vance is also seen by the Make America Great Again (MAGA) grassroots as one of their own. 

This, admittedly, rather whitewashes Vance’s history, which includes once wondering to a friend if Trump could be “America’s Hitler.”

He has long disavowed his earlier criticism, however, and has been a loyal deputy to Trump. He is a fervent believer in the president’s right-wing populist message. 

Vance is also known to have been more skeptical than other senior figures in the administration about the decision to go to war in Iran. His perceived reluctance could be a political asset, given the unpopularity of the war with the public at large.

All of that being said, almost nobody believes Vance is a shoo-in for the nomination. It’s not clear Trump would endorse him. More broadly there are questions about Vance’s political skill while other critics see him as lacking in charisma. 

His showing in his only run for elected office was solid but unspectacular: He won a U.S. Senate seat representing his native Ohio by 7 points in 2022.

2. Secretary of State Marco Rubio

Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vance are, by almost universal agreement, the two front-runners for the 2028 nomination.

In an Emerson College poll for The Hill last month, the secretary of State ran mostly better than Vance in hypothetical match-ups against several potential Democratic nominees.

Rubio has been in the national spotlight since 2010 when he won a U.S. Senate seat representing Florida. 

His experience has made him a more fluent political performer than........

© The Hill