What was the first presidential election year when women voters surpassed men as a percentage of the electorate?

The answer is 1984. In that year, the electorate was 53 percent female and 47 percent male. That year, President Ronald Reagan and Vice President George H. W. Bush defeated former Vice President Walter Mondale and Rep. Geraldine Ferraro in a historic landslide. Four years earlier, in Reagan’s 1980 landslide, the electorate had been 51 percent men and 49 percent women.

Since 1984, women have decisively outvoted men in every presidential election. Forty years later, unique social factors could motivate a record number of women to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris. But before discussing those factors, let’s review female voting data from the last two presidential elections, showing how Harris could win where Hillary Clinton lost.

Consider the 2020 election. Men were 48 percent of the electorate, and women were 52 percent, among whom Biden-Harris won by a 15-point margin. On Monday, an NBC News poll found Harris leading among women by 19 points. Trump’s advantage with men was 12 points.

Given that a larger turnout usually translates into more female voters, the vice president’s strength with women could be her path to victory if the electorate’s female voter turnout exceeds the four-point advantage of 2020.

Interestingly, in 2016, the electorate’s gender composition was the same as in 2020, with women casting 52 percent of the votes. However, of that 52 percent female electorate, Hillary Clinton won only 54 percent, compared to 57........

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