On the Ballot: 10 GOP House seats most likely to flip in November  

With less than six weeks to go until November’s elections, Republicans are on defense as the midterm landscape looks increasingly favorable for Democrats. 

Forecasters including Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Fox News have shifted House races away from Republicans in recent weeks, signaling an increasingly tough terrain for the party to hold on to its 218-seat majority, despite redistricting efforts to stem their losses. 

As President Trump’s approval rating tumbles, Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) now forecasts that Democrats, who need to net at least four seats to win the House, have a 72 percent probability of flipping the lower chamber — and a 52 percent chance of taking both chambers.

Ratings are changing quickly, and forecasters differ in just how competitive they consider the country’s top races. Here are 10 of the Republican-held House seats that are most likely to flip in November.  

Arizona’s 1st District 

Rep. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.) left his seat for an unsuccessful gubernatorial run, giving Democrats a unique pickup opportunity in the Phoenix-area suburbs. Democrat Amish Shah, a former state lawmaker and emergency medicine doctor, is running against Republican Jay Feely, a former NFL kicker for the Arizona Cardinals.  

This House match-up is unique in that the pair previously worked for the same team: Feely played for the New York Jets while Shah was a team doctor. 

The district went for Trump by 3 percentage points in 2024, yet the minority party has a strong chance to flip the House seat with no incumbent and favorable political winds for Democrats.

DDHQ forecasts that the seat leans Democrat, while Cook Political Report rates it as a toss-up. 

Arizona’s 6th District 

Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.) is no stranger to tough races for this Tucson-area House seat. He defeated Democrat Kirsten Engel by just more than a point in 2022, and he defeated her again in 2024 by more than 2 points.  

This cycle, he faces Democrat JoAnna Mendoza, a U.S. Marine Corps veteran. On the campaign trail, Ciscomani has pointed out that he’s been ranked as Arizona’s most bipartisan House member and touted the tax cuts from Republicans’ tax cut and spending megabill.  

Meanwhile, Mendoza argues that Ciscomani’s votes supporting tariffs and the megabill are making life worse for Arizonans. Trump narrowly won Ciscomani’s seat in 2024 by less than a point.  

DDHQ rates Ciscomani’s seat as “likely Democrat” while Cook rates the seat a toss-up. 

California’s 22nd District  

After Democrats successfully redrew California’s congressional lines, Rep. David Valadao’s (R-Calif.) Central Valley district will offer a key test of whether the blue-friendly redistricting effort pays off.  

Valadao served in the House for three terms before he narrowly lost reelection in 2018’s blue-wave midterms, but he went on to win back his seat in 2020. A moderate, he was among the small handful of Republicans who voted for Trump’s second impeachment.

Valadao won his sixth term by roughly 7 points in 2024, but sparse polling has signaled a potentially closer contest against Democrat Randy Villegas this year.

DDHQ considers it a likely Democratic race, while Cook rates it a toss-up.  

Nebraska’s 2nd District 

Republican Rep. Don Bacon is retiring in Nebraska’s “blue dot” district, opening up a competitive race in Omaha.  

Democratic businesswoman Denise Powell and Omaha City Council member Brinker Harding (R) are squaring off for a seat that has gone red every cycle since 2016, despite voting blue in the 2020 and 2024 presidential........

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