The quiet resurgence of plant-based illicit drugs

I’m bullish on synthetic drugs. For years, I have argued that synthetic drugs — “man-made” illicit drugs produced from precursor chemicals — are inevitable given their advantages over traditional, plant-based drugs. 

In 2022, I confidently predicted that “synthetic drugs are the future of drug trafficking.” Two years later, I doubled down on that prediction, declaring that “plant-based drugs, such as cocaine, heroin and marijuana” were “out,” and “Synthetic drugs, like fentanyl and methamphetamine,” were “in.”

My belief in synthetic drugs’ dominance is rooted in “narconomics” — the economics of the illicit drug trade. Drug trafficking organizations are fundamentally profit-driven enterprises, and synthetic drugs offer them clear advantages. They are cheaper to produce, more potent and more profitable than traditional plant-based drugs. Unlike plant-based drugs, they don’t require large tracts of land or intensive farming, and they aren’t subject to seasonal changes, blight or eradication efforts. 

So, why are plant-based drugs seemingly everywhere? 

Despite the rise of synthetic alternatives, plant-based drugs like cocaine continue to flourish. According to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, the production, seizures and use of cocaine reached record levels in 2023, making it the world’s fastest-growing illicit drug market. Illegal production surged to 3,708 metric tons — a 34 percent increase from 2022 and 10 times more than a decade ago. Cocaine is so widely available that some European drug trafficking organizations have begun to stockpile it — in some cases, literally burying it underground — until prices rebound.  

Meanwhile, marijuana is experiencing its own boom in the U.S. Over 70 percent of Americans now live in states where marijuana is legal for medical or recreational use, and nearly 80 percent live in counties with at least one dispensary. In 2024, the U.S. marijuana market generated over $30 billion in sales — surpassing the total revenue of major companies like Starbucks — despite ongoing federal prohibition. And today, more Americans consume marijuana daily or near daily than alcohol, underscoring its growing popularity in the U.S. 

Even methamphetamine, traditionally produced using precursor chemicals, is “going green.” In countries like Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran, traffickers are now making methamphetamine from wild ephedra plants, which are both cheaper and more accessible. As a result, Afghanistan — long known for its role in the global heroin trade — is now the world’s fastest-growing producer of methamphetamine, and nearly all of it is derived from natural sources. 

Synthetic drugs may be the future of drug trafficking but, with apologies to Mark Twain, reports of the death of plant-based drugs have been greatly exaggerated. Illicit economies die hard, and individuals across the supply chain have strong incentives to hold onto their primary source of revenue. There may come a time when plant-based drugs are a rarity — vinyls in a world dominated by streaming music — but for now, we must be prepared to address threats posed by novel synthetic drugs as well as traditional plant-based drugs. But how? 

While some drug policies are designed to address a particular drug, region or population, others apply across the board, including supply reduction. As we’ve seen with the opioid crisis, where supply goes, demand tends to follow, and vice versa. 

The surge in cocaine availability is largely driven by the unprecedented rise in coca cultivation across South America, particularly in Colombia. After years of aggressive supply-side interventions, starting in 2013, the Colombian government reduced and ultimately suspended aerial fumigation, which resulted in an explosion of coca cultivation. According to NPR, from 2012 to 2023, the amount of land used to grow coca in Colombia expanded from 48,000 to 253,000 hectares, the highest on record, leading to “significant increases in cocaine seizures, cocaine users and — most tragically — cocaine-related deaths in many countries.”  

While the efficacy of eradication programs remains hotly contested, the resurgence of cocaine in Colombia demonstrates that supply-side measures, particularly those targeting cultivation and production, can significantly impact consumption and related harms downstream. 

The same lesson can be applied to marijuana, which is almost entirely grown domestically. Notably, U.S. states with strict limits on the number of plants individuals can grow for recreational or medical use often experience fewer regulatory, law enforcement and black-market diversion issues than states with higher or no limits, suggesting that even at the micro-level, supply reduction can have important implications for public health and safety.  

The U.S. and its global partners must continue to evolve their strategies to address emerging threats while strengthening efforts to combat the ongoing challenges posed by plant-based drugs. Supply-side interventions have proven to be effective in controlling a range of illicit drugs, regardless of their origin, but they alone are not sufficient to mitigate the broader social and public health impacts. Demand-side strategies, such as prevention campaigns, treatment programs and harm reduction initiatives, are also critical in responding to the evolving drug landscape. 

While synthetic drugs are on the rise, plant-based drugs are still relevant. Addressing these dual threats requires nuanced, coordinated action within countries and across borders to reduce the harms associated with illicit drug use.

Plant-based drugs are dead. Long live plant-based drugs. 

Jim Crotty is the former deputy chief of staff at the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration. He currently serves as an adjunct professor at American University’s School of Public Affairs, sits on the advisory board of United Against Fentanyl, and is a nonresident senior fellow at the University of South Florida’s Global and National Security Institute. 

Copyright 2026 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

More Opinions - Criminal Justice News

The return-to-the-office trend backfires

Swalwell says staffer flew to Colombia to return hearing aid to deported ...

Thune quashes Trump push to reform filibuster for SAVE Act

Live results: Georgia special election to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene

Republicans eye second GOP-only megabill, but it faces uphill climb

Odds of a ‘Super El Nino’ growing, model shows. What that could mean

Speaker Johnson floats using reconciliation to address alleged fraud in blue ...

Trump heads to Kentucky in an aggressive effort to topple a foe: GOP ...

Democratic senator says US ‘seem to be’ on path toward deploying American ...

Rand Paul: Midterms will be ‘disastrous’ for Republicans

Erika Kirk appointed to Air Force Academy board

A mega-deal to end the war

Swalwell leads wide-open California governor’s race: Poll 

Democrats flip New Hampshire House seat in special election 

Thompson fends off challenger to win Mississippi primary

In ICE masking debate, these former officers say take them off

2 states approved permanent standard time. Others are hoping to do the same

Ro Khanna faces primary challenge, Silicon Valley backlash over wealth tax

The Hill Podcasts – Morning Report

© The Hill