Spotlight shifts to Florida after Democrats win Virginia redistricting battle

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Virginia redistricting measure passes

Iran ceasefire extended

Trump Fed nominee grilled

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Democrats came out on top Tuesday evening as Virginians narrowly approved a ballot measure to redraw the commonwealth’s congressional lines, giving the party four potential pick-ups in the November midterms.

The redrawn map will make Democrats favored to win in 10 of Virginia’s 11 congressional districts, a major shift from their current 6-5 edge, and gives them an edge in the national redistricting battle with Republicans — for now.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) has said he intends to call a special session of the state Legislature to draw a new map, which could net Republicans as many as four or five seats.

But those efforts face a big hurdle, as the Florida Constitution includes anti-gerrymandering language that prohibits redistricting with the intent to favor political parties. Changing it would require a snap popular referendum that would need to reach a 60 percent threshold — a heavy lift with time running short.

“This war is not over. Next week, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is hauling the Florida legislature back into a special session to redraw maps because Republicans know they are on the verge of an epic defeat in November,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said Tuesday night in a statement.

“If Florida Republicans proceed with this illegal scheme, they will only create more prime pick-up opportunities for Democrats, just as they did with Trump’s gerrymander in Texas.”

Some Republicans have also expressed concern about redistricting backfiring on the GOP in the state. 

Alex Alvarado, in an analysis for the Civic Data and Research Institute, wrote Republicans could potentially go from four to seven competitive seats, but warned, “Aggressive redistricting strategies aimed at maximizing Republican seat count may paradoxically increase Republican vulnerability to adverse electoral conditions.”

That’s particularly true when political winds are blowing hard against President Trump and his party.

The Virginia measure still has a hurdle to overcome to go into effect. Republicans have filed lawsuits to try to block the map from being enacted, arguing it violates the state constitution. The Virginia Supreme Court will have the responsibility to decide those cases.

If the measure stands, it marks a massive win for Democrats in Virginia and nationwide.

The measure passed by a margin of 51.5 percent to 48.5 percent, as of the latest vote count — much closer than Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger’s (D) victory last November. 

Tens of millions of dollars from both sides poured into the race, along with campaigning from high-profile figures on both sides.

Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) took part in a tele-rally the night before voters headed to the polls, while former President Obama appeared in an ad calling on voters to approve the measure.

While Democrats at one point feared their chances of winning back control of the House would take a major hit as a result of the nationwide redistricting battle , they remain favored to win back the House eight months after Texas launched its opening salvo by passing new congressional maps.  

Potential Republican gains in Texas and North Carolina seem likely to be canceled out by Democratic gains in California and Utah. Republicans may pick up a seat in Missouri, though a ballot measure is seeking to prevent that, and one or two seats in Ohio from redistricting.

But the party will likely gain only a few seats from the entire process at most, even if Florida goes forward with changes. That’s not what many in the party had hoped for when Texas fired the first shot. 

▪ The Hill: Five takeaways as Democrats boost midterm edge.

▪ The Washington Post: Here are Virginia’s new congressional districts.

Smart Take with Blake Burman

The Trump administration unveiled its $1.45 trillion defense plan this week. If approved, it would be the largest single-year increase since World War II, adjusted for inflation. Requests include money for the Golden Dome project, along with more money for drones and ships. I spoke with former Army Secretary Eric Fanning, who’s currently the president and CEO of the Aerospace Industries Association, about the size of that top-line number. 

“We’ve been underinvesting for a long time, and we’ve seen that in how we’ve been trying to help Ukraine. We’ve seen that in the Iran war,” Fanning told me.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is set to meet with key lawmakers next week. About $350 billion of the $1.45 trillion could be pushed through a potential reconciliation process. That could still be a big lift, given questions about Iran, along with the looming midterms.

Burman hosts “The Hill” weeknights, 6p/5c on NewsNation.

The Department of Justice (DOJ) has charged the Southern Poverty Law Center with fraud in a case tied to a now-defunct program to use paid informants to monitor extremist groups. The organization........

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