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One of the most contentious Democratic Senate primaries this year is now set to be a head-to-head matchup between the two wings of the party. 

Michigan state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D) suspended her campaign Sunday after seeing a significant drop in polls. That leaves the contest between moderate Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) and progressive former Wayne County health director Abdul El-Sayed. 

The timing is critical, as it comes just ahead of a planned primary debate Tuesday that will now only feature Stevens and El-Sayed — and just after the one-month mark until primary day, Aug. 4. 

Holding onto the Senate seat, held by retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D), is critical for Democrats if they want a chance at winning back a majority in the upper chamber. But the competing wings of the Democratic Party disagree strongly on how best to do that in the Great Lakes State. 

Stevens, who has served in the House since 2019, has largely coalesced the establishment behind her. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) has effectively thrown his support to her, and she has the backing of former Michigan Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) and former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). 

She picked up a key endorsement from Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel shortly after McMorrow dropped out. 

El-Sayed has sought to rally progressive enthusiasm, accusing the Democratic establishment, corporations and pro-Israel groups of trying to put their thumb on the scale in Stevens’s favor. He’s backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) and left-wing political commentator Hasan Piker. 

McMorrow had sought to chart a middle path between her opponents, and it seemed to be working for some time. She won support from Democratic Sens. Elizabeth Warren (Mass.) and Chris Murphy (Conn.), plus the editorial board of the Detroit Free Press.  

But her polling largely collapsed recently, as both of her opponents chipped away at her support, leaving her in the single digits in some surveys while Stevens and El-Sayed competed for first. 

Whether Stevens or El-Sayed will clearly benefit more from McMorrow’s departure from the race is unclear. Minimal polling has been conducted evaluating voters’ second preference in the primary or who they would support in a hypothetical two-person race. 

El-Sayed has been riding momentum recently, leading Stevens by about 8 points in Decision Desk HQ’s (DDHQ) polling average. A few polls have also shown him leading in a hypothetical general election matchup against former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.), the likely GOP nominee. 

That could help El-Sayed push back on arguments from critics and Stevens supporters who worry that nominating the progressive could jeopardize Democrats’ chances of winning in the battleground state. 

Stevens argues her moderate bona fides may have more appeal in a state that voted for President Trump in 2024. El-Sayed and Stevens both praised McMorrow in statements responding to her decision and said they would continue to work to ensure they’re the Democratic nominee. 

McMorrow notably did not endorse either candidate, pledging to back whoever wins the August primary. 

Still, her absence may only turn up the primary’s intensity as the two remaining campaigns battle for the key Senate seat and a leg up in the national debate over how Democrats can win in swing states.  

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