The May shootout at the Texas corral: RINO meets MAGA 

Nationally, in November, Democrats must net four seats to edge Republicans out of the majority in the U.S. Senate. They are storming a steep hill. 

The key to it all may be Texas.

Last election, Trump carried Texas by roughly 14 points. No Democrat has won an election for U.S. Senate since 1988. So this should be a gimme for the Republican candidate. 

But 2026 is not 2024. Trump has become damaged goods. The RealClear Polling average, which takes the average of over 14 pollsters, indicates that his overall favorability is only at 44 percent, up just slightly from 43 percent prior to his State of the Union address and the Iran war. And a January Gallup survey found 47 percent of U.S. adults now identify with or lean toward the Democrats, while 42 percent lean Republican. That gives Democrats the edge in party affiliation for the first time since Trump’s first term. 

Texas could, quite surprisingly, be the deciding state in the Democrats’ quest for Senate control. The seat held by Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) is very much in play. Cornyn, a four-term incumbent, is said to be unpopular in the state. Last week, he narrowly finished first in a bitter primary contest against state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R). But since Cornyn fell short of 50 percent of the vote, he must now must face Paxton again in a runoff election in May. 

Smelling blood, Democrats have focused on the state like Santa Ana storming the Alamo. The eventual winner of the Republican nomination will face the young, charismatic state Rep. James Talarico (D). Talarico coasted to a handy primary victory, defeating the fiery Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D) with 53 percent of the vote. 

Talarico, 36, a Presbyterian seminarian and former public school teacher, rocketed to national prominence when CBS refused to broadcast his late-night interview with Stephen Colbert, because under FCC rules he might have been required to give Crockett equal time. The interview streamed online instead, and over 9 million curious people couldn’t wait to see the censored material.

Paxton, an ethically challenged Trump zealot, has savaged Cornyn as a shopworn Republican in name only or “RINO.” There is also the age factor. Cornyn is 74, and experts predict voters this year are looking for candidates who project a youthful profile.  

Trump has judiciously withheld his endorsement from both candidates. If he goes with Cornyn, he might alienate his MAGA base. If he goes with Paxton, Republicans may lose the November election. Cornyn may be a RINO, but he almost always votes for what Trump wants.

Paxton, drenched in scandal, has his own set of negatives. In 2015, he was indicted on state securities fraud charges, which were later dismissed upon his agreement for restitution to the alleged victims. In 2023, he was impeached on allegations that included bribery and obstruction of justice in the securities fraud case. He was acquitted in the Texas Senate, largely along party lines.  

And then there is the sex. Last July, Texas State Sen. Angela Paxton (R) — his wife of 38 years — filed for divorce on “biblical grounds,” accusing him in a court filing of committing adultery, shattering his well-honed image as a family man guided by Christian values.  

Democrats have also recruited other strong candidates to challenge incumbent Republicans. They got a shot in the arm in January when former Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska) announced she will run for the Senate in her home state. Her bid gives Democrats a candidate with statewide name-recognition. Democrats have also recruited former three-term Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), former two-term Gov. Roy Cooper (D) in North Carolina and two-term Gov. Janet Mills (D) in Maine.

And then there are the states where Democrats must defend seats. Sen. Gary Peters’s (D-Mich.) retirement has opened a seat in a state Trump carried narrowly. Republicans have coalesced behind former Rep. Mike Rogers (R), while Democrats face a crowded August primary.

Democrats’ shot at the majority almost certainly depends on Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) winning reelection in Georgia, where Trump won in 2024 by 2 percentage points, and holding Michigan. 

But, as always, it seems to be all about Trump. How the Iran war turns out will make a great difference. The war is a distraction from Jeffrey Epstein, inflation, unpopular tariffs, draconian immigration strategies and weaponization of the Justice Department. As Shakespeare’s Henry V, on his deathbed, advised his son on how to stay in power: “busy giddy minds with foreign quarrels.”

The data strongly suggests that independents are moving toward Democrats because of their souring attitude toward Trump. The Democratic Party’s favorability is still low, and as more Americans identify as independents, they tend to gravitate toward the party that is out of political power. 

And deep in the heart of Texas may be key to it all.  

James D. Zirin is a former federal prosecutor in the Southern District of New York and a published legal analyst.

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