The Sahel region has become a focal point of deepening polarization between pro-Western "moderate" states and nations seeking independence from neo-colonial influence, relying instead on non-African powers like Russia. On July 6, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger formalized their partnership by founding the "Confederation of Sahel States" (AES), a union of military-led regimes that reject the pressures from the West, particularly from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).

The timing of the AES announcement, just a day before the ECOWAS summit in Nigeria, was no coincidence. It highlighted the growing divide in West Africa. For the U.S. and EU, this development signals a complex geopolitical shift, raising questions about regional stability and influence in the Sahel. These nations, all now under military rule following coups that ousted pro-Western governments, want to chart a new course.

The AES has emerged not just as a confederation but as a defense pact — a signal that the days of reliance on Western powers are fading fast. Mali's early exit from the G5 Sahel in 2022 foreshadowed this rupture, with Burkina Faso and Niger following suit in 2023.

The creation of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) is a response to frustrations over how Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger feel they have been treated by the African Union (AU) and the ECOWAS. These nations argue that both organizations have failed to provide sufficient support in their fight against jihadist insurgencies. More pressing, however, is their critique of ECOWAS, which they claim has been unduly influenced by foreign powers, particularly France. Sanctions imposed by these organizations, they assert, have only worsened the suffering of their populations.

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