Could a $1 trillion deal reopen the Strait of Hormuz?

Two possibly irreconcilable strategic dilemmas that are joined as Siamese twins are at conceivably every juncture confronting President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The first is how to defeat an enemy whose strategy is to win by not losing? The second is what will it take to reopen the Strait of Hormuz?

As old as history, winning by not losing has been called the strategy of the weak in Sun Tsu’s “The Art of War.” Britain employed it once it had a Navy and could use the English Channel as an uncrossable moat not even Hitler could breach. Then Pearl Harbor brought America into the war.

More recently, Algeria won independence from France, as did North Vietnam, by not losing. North Vietnam repeated its success repelling the U.S. in 1974 despite defeats in all major battles. Fifteen years later in 1989, the Taliban ejected the Soviet Union from Afghanistan and in three decades dealt the U.S. an ignominious defeat and retreat from Kabul, losing virtually every battle. Will Iran succeed against the U.S. and Israel in the same manner?

Iran’s strategy for victory means enduring more pain than its adversaries can tolerate. The tactical and operational prowess of the U.S. and Israeli military might have so far imposed significant costs on Iran’s defense and security capabilities. But the assassination of Ayatollah Khamenei may have backfired. The anointment of his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, has rallied many Iranians as a show of defiance amid the damage being imposed on the country by thousands of bomb and missile strikes on more than 6,500 targets.

Given Mojtaba’s inexperience, the role of the already powerful Ali Larijani, chairman of the National Security Council, is greatly strengthened and ironically sets someone who is both competent and vengeful atop the leadership. And when the U.S. and Israel ultimately run out of legitimate military targets will they both have no option other than to inflict more pain and cost by attacking vital civilian infrastructure?

Beyond how, when and if the war ends, what might be the costs of reopening the Strait of Hormuz? Armchair strategists might propose an amphibious invasion of Iran to seize control of the strait along with the nearby port of Bandar Abbas and surrounding areas, choking off Tehran’s means to attack shipping with missiles, drones and mines. But what would that require, what would it cost in blood and treasure and would it work?

After President Jimmy Carter took office in January 1977, the Pentagon undertook what became the Persian Gulf Strategy. Facing deadlock in Europe, the Soviet Union would consider invading Iran to control its vast oil reserves. Why the Soviet Union, with massive energy resources, would need to do that was never established beyond denying oil to the West. 

In response, the Rapid Deployment Joint Task Force was created. In war, the force would land a U.S. corps of about 150,000 troops on Iran’s south coast and race north several hundred to stop the Red Army at the Zagros Mountains. The first commander and future Marine Corps commandant, Gen. P.X. Kelley, mused that the Rapid Deployment Joint Task Force was not rapid, deployable or joint. Assuming the U.S. could deploy a similar size force to the strait, it would take months to prepare.

Both the 1991 and 2003 Iraq Wars suggest the time needed to assemble and stage such a force. Back then, the strait was open. It is not now. What losses would an invasion suffer? The 1945 Battle for Okinawa and massive damage imposed by Japanese Kamikaze attacks could presage what happens at Hormuz — potential disaster.

More likely, the U.S. will declare victory and stand down, letting Israel and Iran come to some sort of accommodation. But do not assume Iran will magically open the strait: It will extort a price. Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States may find that this is the least costly option for selling their energy. Would $1 trillion be too much? Possibly not.

As Egypt charges for passage through the Suez Canal, Iran could also impose tolls on transiting ships. That could bring huge proceeds, but the costs would be reflected in the increased price of energy to consumers. Even that would be better than suffering the catastrophic economic impact of denying about 20 percent of the global supply of energy to markets.

Do Trump and Netanyahu have the grasp and means and intellect to separate these twin dilemmas? Or will the bill be $1 trillion or more to open Hormuz? My guess is the latter.

Harlan Ullman, Ph.D., is UPI’s Arnaud deBorchgrave Distinguished Columnist, a senior adviser at the Atlantic Council, the chairman of two private companies and the principal author of the doctrine of shock and awe. He and former United Kingdom Defense Chief David Richards are the authors of a forthcoming book on preventing strategic catastrophe.

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