Although the normalization of relations with Israel is a clear priority for the Trump administration, the calculus for Riyadh remains far more complex. Despite the promise of economic and security incentives, the reality is that Saudi Arabia may not see substantial gains from joining the Abraham Accords at this moment.

The kingdom already enjoys access to U.S. markets and can pursue its Vision 2030 economic diversification plan without formal diplomatic ties to Israel. More importantly, Iran’s current state of weakness raises the question of whether Saudi Arabia should make a major geopolitical shift without first ensuring a clear and consistent U.S. policy toward Tehran.

Finally, the potential backlash from the broader Arab and Muslim populations, given Saudi Arabia’s religious and cultural significance, presents a major risk unless a clear pathway to a Palestinian state is established. This seems to be the Saudi position persistently, at least in public.

The economic argument for normalization is less compelling than some may think. Advocates point to increased foreign direct investment and expanded trade partnerships as benefits of joining the accords. But Saudi Arabia is already well integrated into global markets, with its net foreign direct investment rising by 37 percent to more than $4 billion in 2024.

The kingdom’s economic transformation is largely self-sustaining.

© The Hill