Stop fearing a strong Russia — start fearing a dying Russia

Five years after the Kremlin promised a week-long “special military operation,” Russia’s Victory Day parade on May 9, 2026, will proceed without tanks or heavy military equipment for the first time in nearly two decades. The Defense Ministry cited the “current operational situation.” The world understands what that means: much of the hardware is destroyed in Ukraine, still committed there, or needed to protect the regime.

This moment should force a rethink in Western capitals. The Russia that still dominates security discourse — a powerful, expansionist juggernaut capable of overrunning NATO’s eastern flank — increasingly resembles a phantom. What exists instead is a demographically collapsing, militarily exhausted, and economically strained state armed with nuclear weapons. And that Russia is far more dangerous.

Russia’s demographic crisis began long before 2022. In 1992, deaths exceeded births in peacetime for the first time. The Soviet collapse triggered hyperinflation, healthcare collapse, and a plunge in male life expectancy. By 2025, according to Rosstat, the total fertility rate had fallen to 1.37 children per woman — far below the replacement level of 2.1.

Three waves of emigration have made the crisis worse, stripping Russia of its most educated and productive citizens. The latest wave, triggered by the Ukraine invasion and mobilization, has cost more than a million people. Even........

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